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NFL

Nfl Week 9 Draftkings – Raybon&#39S Nfl Week 9 Dfs Breakdown

This article is a data-driven deep dive on strategic decision-making and roster construction for DFS cash games and tournaments. It relies heavily upon floorballcoach.org’ extensive suite of analytical DFS tools, as well as advanced metrics and film study. First, I walk through narrowing down the player pool at each position. Then, I lay out how to choose the highest-floor lineup combinations for cash games. Finally, I go game-by-game to present the biggest edges (stacks, pivots, leverage opportunities, etc.) in each.

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Week 9 shmoney time!

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Quarterback (Cash)

Russell Wilson, Seahawks ($7,600 DK, $9,000 FD) at BUF

Russell Wilson: Seven games played, seven times eclipsing value for Wilson, and he’s done it by an average of over 11 points, no less (+11.96 on FanDuel, +11.26 on DraftKings). With the Bills defense missing linebacker Matt Milano (pectoral, IR) and cornerback Josh Norman (hamstring, out), this sets up to be another slate-topping day for Wilson, who leads all QBs in our NFL Player Models in median projection and Projected Plus/Minus.

Running Back (Cash)

Justin Jackson, Chargers ($5,200 DK, $5,700 FD) vs. LARChase Edmonds, Cardinals ($5,800 DK, $5,900 FD) vs. CLEDeeJay Dallas, Seahawks ($6,100 DK, $5,800 FD) vs. MIN

Finally over an early-season knee injury, Justin Jackson led the Chargers backfield in snaps (41) and touches (20) last week, while former challenger Joshua Kelley was usurped by Troymaine Pope. With Pope doubtful due to a concussion, Jackson should be firmly entrenched in a featured role against a Raiders defense that ranks 31st in Football Outsiders’ defensive rushing DVOA. Jackson is top three in Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and top six on FanDuel. I prefer to take the discount with Jackson over David Johnson, who may cede early-down snaps to Duke Johnson Jr. coming out of the bye, according to Texans offensive coordinator Tim Kelly.

DeeJay Dallas played 54 of 68 snaps and handled 23 touches for Seattle’s shorthanded backfield last week, with 11 of those touches coming in the red zone. A healthier Travis Homer could see a few passing-down snaps and recently signed Alex Collins could mix in, but Dallas’ usage last week compared to the competition speaks for itself. Dallas ranks among the top two RBs in Projected Plus/Minus and offers TD variance insurance on Wilson for a Seahawks offense implied to score the third-most points on the slate (29).

Chase Edmonds may end up logging every backfield touch for the Cardinals this week, as backups Jonathan Ward and Eno Benjamin have combined for precisely zero offensive snaps this season. Edmonds is in a smash spot against a Dolphins defense that sets up as the run of run funnels, ranking third in DVOA against the pass but dead last vs. the run. Edmonds projects for the second-highest RB floor behind Dalvin Cook at a massive relative discount.

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Wide Receiver (Cash)

Brandin Cooks, Texans ($5,500 DK, $4,900 FD) at JAXKeenan Allen, Chargers ($7,000 DK, $7,500 FD) vs. LVStefon Diggs, Bills ($7,400 DK, $7,600 FD) vs. SEAJulio Jones, Falcons ($7,200 DK, $8,200 FD) vs. DEN

In the three games since interim coach Romeo Crennel took over for Bill O’Brien, Brandin Cooks has seen target counts of 12, nine and nine, snagging seven-plus receptions in every game. On DraftKings, Cooks is priced and projected similarly to D.J. Moore, but Moore faces a tough matchup against a Chiefs defense ranked seventh in DVOA against the pass and top 12 versus both No. 1 and No. 2 receivers. Cooks, meanwhile, goes against a Jaguars squad that rates dead last in pass-defense DVOA. Cooks’ cash game value to this slate compares favorably not only relative to the alternatives at WR, but also relative to the value of teammate David Johnson, as there are more options at/below Johnson’s cost at RB.

Keenan Allen has exceeded salary-based expectations in all six games with Justin Herbert. Herbert has looked Allen’s way at least 10 times in each game except Week 5, when Allen left early with back spasms after posting a 2/29/1 line. It’s worth noting that Allen is questionable for the game due to an illness.

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Stefon Diggs gets a matchup versus a Seahawks defense that has allowed 151 receptions to opposing wide receivers. Despite Seattle having already had its bye, that total is 27 more than any other defense in the NFL has allowed. Diggs has caught at least six passes in all but one game and is yet to post a line without either six-plus catches or a TD.

Julio Jones will face a Broncos defense missing top cornerback A.J. Bouye (concussion), and the Falcons could also be without Calvin Ridley (foot, questionable). Our models project Jones with the highest median and second-highest floor among WRs.

Tight End (Cash)

Hunter Henry, Chargers ($4,000 DK, $5,600 FD) vs. LVDarren Waller, Raiders ($5,800 DK, $6,400 FD) at LAC

Hunter Henry is projected within tenths of a point of Hayden Hurst, and while Hurst will likely be more popular on DraftKings, the $100 savings you get with Hurst comes in handy from a lineup-construction perspective. Though Henry has been disappointing at times, his median target count this season is seven, which is tied with Travis Kelce and a full target higher than Hurst.

On FanDuel, the top value at the position happens to be on the other side of the same game in Darren Waller, who has caught at least five passes in six of seven games.

Defense/Special Teams (Cash)

Dallas Cowboys ($2,000 DK, $3,000 FD) vs. PITAtlanta Falcons ($2,500 DK, $3,600 FD) vs. DEN

DraftKings continues to price up DSTs to the point that punting DFS’s most volatile position makes the most sense. The Cowboys clock in second in points per dollar and third in Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings while the Steelers offense hasn’t exactly been a world beater, ranking 26th in early-down success rate according to Sharp Football Stats.

On FanDuel, Falcons DST is affordable enough in a matchup against a Broncos team that allows the top Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate to opposing DSTs (+4.2). The Falcons have quietly held each of their past four opponents to 23 or fewer points.

Roster Build (Cash)

On DraftKings, you can fit Wilson, Edmonds, Jackson, Dallas, Jones, Allen and Cooks, if you go with Henry over Hurst at TE and punt with the Cowboys at DST.

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On FanDuel, you can fit Wilson, Edmonds, Jackson, Dallas, Jones, Diggs, Allen and Waller with any DST under $3,600.

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